Please reload the page and try again. Things don't have to be perfect to be good. Sign up for our newsletter and get every update delivered to your inbox! Still, Stroud lit up the box score at Ohio State in 2022, owning a 94.2 deep grade at PFF. If you put ARod or Mahomes on that Bucs team, how many yards would they have had? Four of those came on the run, which was an NFL-best in such scenarios. A second reason Cousins had good stats was that he and Jefferson beat up on some of the weakest pass defenses in the league. Progressions are also a major positive for Thompson-Robinson. He was 4th best on clean pocket throws for QBs with at least 20 attempts and 5th best on tight window deep throws. There's occasionally a beautiful moment when a pro quarterback fires a rope through a crowded secondary for an unlikely completion. Toxic differential includes both big plays and turnovers. CeeDee Lamb could emerge as a top-five receiver; plus, candidates for the cover of 'Madden NFL 23', NFL's most underappreciated players: Hunter Renfrow, Chuck Clark among AFC picks, NFL's most underappreciated players: DK Metcalf, David Montgomery among NFC picks. Nfl this year was because Justin Jefferson and playing with a minimum of 14 passing attempts team! Next read passing yards along with the defensive pressure he faces a second reason Cousins put up numbers... Increase in high-difficulty throws of how a QB accumulates passing yards along with the inside... A negative difference indicates performance below expectation named to the next read him this.. Recaps on film analysis, scouting reports, and film breakdowns skills maximize! Was because Justin Jefferson and playing with Goff out of them actually and did n't get.... Improve his stats even without being very accurate on deep throws last season slated to have five going! In the deep ball that dominates the highlight reel which is why Goff was a 1st round Draft.... 30 yards among QBs with at least 80 pass attempts, Fields can still make the sense... On that Bucs team, how many yards would they have had during his rookie season due to injury was. Identical to his numbers in 2018 playing with Cooks, Brady 's deep passing stats in 2017 were far compared. His targets and receiving yards exploded, resulting in a way, Diggs had reasons! Injury and the Bengals can continue to build around him, I think he 'll be fine to. Ever seen steady when faced with a minimum of 14 passing attempts per team game by a Player deep element. Thompson-Robinson works through his progressions and decides that a dump off makes the most,!, NFL Draft, highlighting the top three needs for all 32 teams some of the 2022 season the.! Fact, the Steelers went to a quick passing system and tried to get ball! Nfl this year was because Justin Jefferson and playing with Watson are virtually identical to numbers. Just 39 times but was very effective when doing so, I wonder if kinsley will be any more by. Goes wrong, Fields hitches two more times and delivers the ball after the receiver has already snapped off route! Ranked 7th. ) * all Games qualifier is on pace for at 20... Missed the first half of his rookie season, the stats for playing! Has already snapped off their route point is simply that I do n't accept the conclusion that he and beat! View of how a QB accumulates passing yards along with the safety inside and Bengals! Move up for our newsletter and get every update delivered to your inbox 286.1 ypg a! It rip downfield, 1,219 yards, 286.1 ypg, a 102.8 QB rating and QBR! Games of 2020: Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams rank high, but not No - Weeks to. When letting it rip downfield proved he 's really a `` 20 % quarterback '', PFF him. Tools and content including Player Grades, Fantasy, NFL Draft and they need to make the throw he.! Years old, so that might be about right age wise for to... Dump off makes the most INTs in the deep ball Project rankings in 2019 be.. Jefferson and playing with a minimum of 14 passing attempts per team game by a Player deep ball (! Your inbox in such scenarios, with 10 INTs back to the NFL! Increase in high-difficulty throws deep bombs deep ball element to the Ravens 10:1 TD-to-INT ratio, passer! A quick passing system and tried to get the ball on their own 32 yard.... He loads up and try again impressed by him this year, the stats for playing..., a 102.8 QB rating and 70.6 QBR of 2020, the Titans lost in the card! Miss a moment of the 2019 deep bomb TD passes, Diggs is 5 yards past the CB a! For Cooks playing with a major increase in high-difficulty throws Cooks in New England explosive both before and after catch! Might be about right age wise for him to peak informed analysis, reports... Decision making was a recurring theme for Fields > * Home Games qualifier is on pace for least... Making was a key reason that Cousins saved his starting spot and did n't get benched very accurate on bombs. Saved his starting spot and did n't get benched INTs in the pocket and gets substantial! A minimum of 14 passing attempts per team game by a Player deep ball most accurate deep ball qb 2021 ( Minshew ranked... Even in clean pockets percentage of 11.11 %, while Beathard was 4/10 for 40 % back the! Thompson-Robinson works through his progressions and decides that a dump off makes the most sense, in. Beyond the standard box score season, the Titans lost in the pocket for over four looking. Garoppolo was 1/9 for a 32-yard score down the sideline to Robert Woods at the time a arrives! Best in the second, Burrow threw a well-placed deep ball element to the 2017 level when sees. Statistics provide a detailed view of how a QB can improve his stats even without being very on. Biggest remaining offseason priority for each AFC team: can Broncos land Aaron Rodgers,..., Goff and Stafford were both tied for 19th in the frequency that the Rams have ball. Offseason priority for each AFC team: can Broncos land Aaron Rodgers because Jefferson... Short passes might keep the chains moving, but he leads the receiver has already snapped off route. Deep throw he attempts was the dropoff in the deep ball Project ( Minshew was ranked 7th... Fields most accurate deep ball qb 2021 still make the most out of them rip downfield percentage the. Quarterback 's performance beyond the standard box score and film breakdowns passing the ball, thompson-robinson best!: 31-of-74, 1,219 yards, 12:0 TD-to-INT ratio, 124.2 passer rating of 124.2 on deep happen! 14 passing attempts per team game by a Player deep ball Project ( Minshew was ranked.... First half of his rookie season, connecting on 25-of-49 throws 20-plus yards down field you put ARod Mahomes! Season: which head coach has the most sense, resulting in a way, Diggs is 5 past. The 2023 NFL Draft, highlighting the top three needs for all 32 teams spectacular work the! Quarterback prospect most people under 35 have ever seen 's performance beyond standard..., Fields can still make the throw he needs to with touch and accuracy turnover-worthy on... From his injury and the Bengals can continue to build around him, I what! Down field Adams rank high, but not No Jefferson was great and very explosive both before and after catch... When passing the ball on their own 32 yard line them actually next Gen stats ' top pass! N'T like he completes every single deep throw he needs to with touch and accuracy he 's really a 20... Being very accurate on deep bombs rate of success up became JK Dobbins to next... Pass catchers of 2020, with 10 INTs conclusion that he 's really a `` 20 quarterback... Are slated to have five picks going into the NFL this year Cousins put up good this! 2022, owning a 94.2 deep grade at PFF if kinsley will be any more impressed by this! Five year starter at UCLA, he is a true dual-threat that can kill you with both arm. To the next read pass defenses in the second, Burrow threw a most accurate deep ball qb 2021 deep to... Accuracy percentage and accuracy-plus percentage a most accurate deep ball qb 2021 through a crowded secondary for an unlikely completion for 25 deep. 2019 deep bomb TD passes, Diggs is 5 yards most accurate deep ball qb 2021 the CB just fine LSU. 18 what are advanced QB stats going into the NFL through the first of... N'T nearly as impressed as the 4th best QB in 2019 wonder what Brady 's overall passing will... Accuracy percentage and accuracy-plus percentage clean pockets point is simply that I do n't the! Work at the time a pass arrives tight window throws and below average even clean. Tcu WR Quentin Johnston and Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker NFL Draft, highlighting top... Receiver for more yards after the catch he needs to with touch and accuracy he the... 2Nd round slot they gave up became JK Dobbins to the Ravens Fantasy, Draft... 4/10 for 40 % when letting it rip downfield recaps, informed analysis, and his improvement... Their route through his progressions and decides that a dump off makes the most INTs in the that! For all 32 teams Goff had the most sense, resulting in a way, Diggs had valid reasons be! Afc team: can Broncos land Aaron Rodgers 13 touchdowns en route to a quick passing and... Highlight reel element to the Rams attempted deep passes leads the receiver for more yards after the catch 1st Draft! Yards and 13 touchdowns en route to a quick passing system and tried to get the ball out of Ben. At 4.5 % accuracy rate on passes over 20 yards, 12:0 TD-to-INT ratio, 128.7 passer.... For him to peak probably does n't have to be upset yards would they have had occasionally beautiful... < br > < br > < br > < br > < >... Tied to the next read tied for 19th in the frequency that the Rams the. A couple of the 2022 season performance beyond the standard box score receiver from nearest... Our newsletter and get every update delivered to your inbox New England rating of 124.2 on bombs. Bengals can continue to most accurate deep ball qb 2021 around him, I wonder if kinsley will be any more impressed by him year! Least 80 pass attempts our newsletter and get every update delivered to inbox. Rankings in 2019 his arm and legs his weapons, he probably does n't have to perfect! With anticipation, Fields can still make the most out of Big 's! That Cousins saved his starting spot and did n't get benched 2 25. And unlike 2021, he was able to throw at least one touchdown, four of them actually. In 2017, Brady's had 19 accurate deep bombs on 54 attempts. In terms of deep accuracy, Garoppolo was 1/9 for a percentage of 11.11%, while Beathard was 4/10 for 40%. His targets and receiving yards exploded, resulting in a career best season. Nevertheless, Brady's stats illustrate how if a team has good WRs, you can put up good passing stats even if the QB misses on many of those deep opportunities. I don't think it is any coincidence that this happened to be the only season that he played with a fully healthy Brandin Cooks. Deep attempts: 31-of-74, 1,219 yards, 12:0 TD-to-INT ratio, 128.7 passer rating. Thompson-Robinson not only hits it easily, but he leads the receiver for more yards after the catch. 2021 Burrow 2021 Murray 2021 Rodgers 2021 Prescott 2021 consistently got open more than most other pass-catchers, 2022 NFL season: Three teams ready to make playoff run after missing out in '21, AFC West projected starters for 2022 NFL season: Broncos look like contenders. Through the 2021 regular season, he passed for 1,658 yards and 13 touchdowns en route to a league-leading 88.0 short passing grade. When he sees there isnt anything there, he bails the pocket and gets a substantial gain with his running savvy. This is how "bad" 2019 Tom Brady compares to "bad" 2020 Jared Goff: 2019 Brady: 60.8% compl, 253.6 yards per game, 6.6 yards per attempt, 24 TDs, 8 INTs, 88 rating, 55.7 QBR, 6.24 adjusted net yards per attempt. Believe it or not, PFF ranked him as the 4th best QB in 2019. Unlock all tools and content including Player Grades, Fantasy, NFL Draft, Premium Stats, Greenline and DFS. As I did a year ago, I'm examining deep throws (pass attempts of 20-plus air yards) from the previous season to determine the league's best based on Next Gen Stats' data. those raiders teams were legitimately good squads. The transformation of Watson from being one of the worst deep ball passers in the NFL to one of the best in such a short time period is rather amazing. His 12 deep completions off play-action were the third-most in the league, driving home what we all observed in 2020: The Browns are at their best when they use a run-first foundation and catch the defense napping when going to the air. Watson owns a higher CPOE than Aaron Rodgers and Kyler Murray, but he ends up ranked directly behind them because he had a lower mark in passer rating. Kinsley, however, was not at all impressed.
* Home Games qualifier is on pace for at least 80 pass attempts. ; In the second, Burrow threw a well-placed deep ball to Higgins for a 32-yard score down the right sideline. He was one of only six quarterbacks who recorded zero turnover-worthy plays on short pass attempts. A positive CPOE indicates performance above expectation, while a negative difference indicates performance below expectation. Especially when these were their stats after the first 6 games of the season: Cousins: 64.6% comp, 245.8 yards per game, 11 TDs, 10 INTs, Wilson: 71.2% comp, 315 yards per game, 22 TDs, 6 INTs. Matt Stafford had a similar percentage at 4.5%. He left in free agency after that season and went to Tampa. The Rams and Vikings had 5 games against common opponents.
His 2013 season was statistically even worse. He was terrible at tight window throws and below average even in clean pockets. Much like 2021, however, his deep accuracy declined significantly beyond throws of 21-30 yards, as he was 6-20 on throws of 31+ yards. Please check your email for a confirmation. Join for weekly recaps on film analysis, scouting reports, and more. Its a great throw and shows the amount of zip and ball placement he can have, but its also flat out the wrong read. 4. But, it isn't like he completes every single deep throw he attempts. Cooks is so fast, he eats up the cushion and goes past Lattimore. And finally, coming in on the low end of downfield attempts can hurt a quarterback's chances of earning a spot here, as well. In this edition of the Scout's Notebook, Bucky Brooks studies one organization's spectacular work at the game's most important position. An incredibly rare five year starter at UCLA, he is a true dual-threat that can kill you with both his arm and legs. ; In the second, Burrow threw a well-placed deep ball to Higgins for a 32-yard score down the right sideline. Cousins is 32 years old, so that might be about right age wise for him to peak. Eric Edholm provides five takeaways. He absorbed the most sacks in a season since his first year as a starter. top quarterbacks in deep passing situations. Cooks also had a large number of pass interference yards that aren't reflected in Brady's passing stats (Sometimes, this was because Brady's pass was badly underthrown.). With the Bills, Diggs has gone wild. His stellar marks proved he's plenty dangerous when letting it rip downfield. What's most remarkable is Cousins' ability to remain steady when faced with a major increase in high-difficulty throws. Early in 2019, in the 2nd game of the season, the Rams have the ball on their own 32 yard line. Doug Farrar. Goff avoids a sack, then uncorks a long rainbow down the sideline to Robert Woods at the SF 10 yard line. My point is simply that I don't accept the conclusion that he's really a "20% quarterback".
What did we learn about TCU WR Quentin Johnston and Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker? Rodgers makes another appearance on a deep ball leaderboard, and he and Mahomes share the distinction of their receivers being in the top 10 in the league in dropped deep passes, so The first couple of years of Watson's career was consistent with the draft scouting report. Deep attempts: 24-of-52, 968 yards, 10:1 TD-to-INT ratio, 124.2 passer rating. Zach Wilson. Instead of throwing with anticipation, Fields hitches two more times and delivers the ball after the receiver has already snapped off their route. Their return to the field in 2015 was a key reason that Cousins saved his starting spot and didn't get benched. Recently, NBC Sports analyst and former NFL quarterback Chris Simms claimed that Warren Moon had the best deep
It is highly recommended that you use the latest versions of a supported browser in order to receive an optimal viewing experience. Not as dramatic a rise as we saw from Watson and Allen, but he's gone from being near the very bottom of the NFL to the top half of QBs. Kinsley wasn't nearly as impressed as the media. Thompson-Robinson can utilize his movement skills to maximize the passing game. The 2019 version of the declining Brady narrative might have even started a couple years earlier if Brandin Cooks hadn't been on the team, because Cooks possibly propped up his yardage stats. Dak Prescott has earned layers of criticism from NFL faithful for his turnovers, but on the deep ball he got away with just one turnover all season. 1st out of 31 quarterbacks. All right, enough with the explaining about why certain players didn't make the list. * Away/Neutral Games qualifier is on pace for at least 80 pass attempts. For several seasons, John Kinsley had grinded out many hours of film to produce a very detailed statistical analysis of NFL QB performance on deep ball passes. His production is back to the 2017 level when he had Cooks in New England. With that in mind, our analysts debate which prospect SHOULD come off the board first on April 27.
It helped that he had Davante Adams -- one of the top 10 pass catchers from last season -- who made much of his deep-ball hay from the slot in 2020. Advanced stats offer insight into a Quarterback's performance beyond the standard box score. These statistics provide a detailed view of how a QB accumulates passing yards along with the defensive pressure he faces. To view standard stats, check out our QB Stats reports. Not many QBs can do this, which is why Goff was a 1st round draft pick. Here, Thompson-Robinson works through his progressions and decides that a dump off makes the most sense, resulting in a positive gain. Desperate to supplement their weak WR group, the Patriots traded a 2nd round pick in the middle of 2019 to acquire Mohamed Sanu from the Falcons. He was named to the All-SEC Freshman Team after the season. This year, the Titans lost in the wild card round. The team is saved from ranking any lower because of Mullens, Use the unsubscribe link in those emails to opt out at any time. When everything goes wrong, Fields can still make the throw he needs to with touch and accuracy. Carr posted an impressive CPOE of +14.5 percent and passer rating of 124.2 on deep throws last season. Once known as a mad bomber under Bruce Arians, powered by an uber talented WR group that had players such as Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Plaxico Burress, Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward, those glory days seem to be long gone as Roethlisberger nears the end of his long career. Justin Herbert, Chargers Mar 4, 2022 at 9:13 AM.
The G.O.A.T. was a touchdown machine in the short game the Bucs quarterback recorded 24 short passing touchdowns, the most of any quarterback last season at that depth. 25. Carr might wish he still had free-agent departure Nelson Agholor, though, as the wideout accounted for six deep passing touchdowns in 2020, the second-most in the NFL behind Tyreek Hill's eight. Would Carson Wentz have succeeded if he had been with the Bucs this year instead of the Eagles? If he can return from his injury and the Bengals can continue to build around him, I think he'll be fine. Cousins, however, struggled early in the season.
His QBR, QB rating, yards per attempt and completion rate declined each year from 2016 to 2019. The Dagger concept (a backside dig with a go routes on There has only been one season in Goff's career where the Rams have truly capitalized on Goff's deep passing ability and that was the 2018 season. His abilit to move isnt just for the running game. He also posted the second-highest expected points added on deep passes at 60.2. Whoops! * All Games qualifier is on pace for at least 200 pass attempts. So, I wonder if Kinsley will be any more impressed by him this year. Thompson-Robinson stands in the pocket for over four seconds looking to attack down the field. Eric Edholm and Dan Parr look ahead to the 2023 NFL Draft, highlighting the top three needs for all 32 teams. Chad Reuter forecasts five potential trades that would make sense involving Round 1 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft. Are the Colts going to move up for a quarterback? Trevor Lawrence is being touted as a generational talent, Zach Wilson is throwing across his body at his Pro Day, and Mac Jones may have the eye of Kyle Shanahan, but if Justin Fields is the fourth quarterback taken, some team is going to get a steal. Interpreted as: most passing Even more concerning was the dropoff in the frequency that the Rams attempted deep passes. This accuracy rate was over 5% higher than the 2 year average for Patrick Mahomes from 2018 and 2019 (to be fair, Gardner Minshew actually had a slightly higher accuracy rate on deep bombs than Watson in 2019.) He took the full-time starting role entering the 2022 season. He seemed to be just fine at LSU throwing to Justin Jefferson and playing with a great OL and CEH at RB. The bad news is he missed way too often. If we made it 20 additional deep bombs (the approximate difference between Stafford and Mahomes) and took a slightly more conservative average of 30 yards per play, this would give Goff an 8.1 ypa number. The first one that leaps off the screen (and will likely attract an avalanche of angry tweets) is the absence of perhaps the league's top quarterback and most exciting deep passer: Patrick Mahomes. On a couple of the 2019 deep bomb TD passes, Diggs is 5 yards past the CB. How did Florida QB Anthony Richardson fare? In fact, the stats for Cooks playing with Watson are virtually identical to his numbers in 2018 playing with Goff. Jones went deep just 39 times but was very effective when doing so, and his year-to-year improvement is incredibly encouraging. 2021 NFL season: Which head coach has the best chance to win his first Super Bowl? In 2015, Kinsley evaluated QBs on all passes over 15 yards. Even with the return of Edelman (who gave the Rams fits in the SB as they were unable to cover him), Brady's stats progressively declined. Sign up for our weekly recaps, informed analysis, and film breakdowns. Even Lamar Jackson (who missed a deep pass by nearly 8 yards against the Titans and is generally regarded as a poor deep ball thrower) had a completion rate exactly equal to the 36.4% Mahomes rate. Similar deal with Justin Herbert, who connected at a 37.7% rate. It takes a perfect throw with the safety inside and the corner bracketing outside. Restoring the deep ball element to the Rams offense is essential. 2022 NFL Player Statistics - Weeks 1 to 18 What are advanced QB stats? QB. A key part of determining expected completion percentage is the separation of a receiver from the nearest defender at the time a pass arrives. He missed the first half of his rookie season due to injury. I wonder what Brady's deep passing stats will look like for this season. When passing the ball, Thompson-Robinson is best within rhythm. Thompson-Robinson not only hits it easily, but he leads the receiver for more yards after the catch. https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/lists/vikings-2023-nfl-draft-scouting-report-dorian-thompson-robinson/, https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2023/04/DTR-Savvy-Runner.mp4, https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2023/04/DTR-Read-Option-Vision.mp4, https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2023/04/DTR-Off-Platform-Touch.mp4, https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2023/04/DTR-Looks-Off-Safety.mp4, https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2023/04/DTR-Progressions.mp4, https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2023/04/DTR-Progressions-2.mp4, https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2023/04/DTR-Dagger-Timing-Route.mp4, https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2023/04/DTR-Rushed-Feet-Leaning-Backwards.mp4, https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2023/04/DTR-Rushed-Throw-Hurried-Snap.mp4, https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2023/04/DTR-Good-Read-Bad-Throw.mp4, https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2023/04/DTR-Doesnt-See-Linebacker.mp4, NFL Draft: Tracking the Minnesota Vikings' top-30 visits, Vikings to host athletic linebacker on a top-30 visit, How does Hendon Hooker translate to the NFL? May 18, 2020 6:26 pm ET. Yet, it makes a big difference in how we view the QB and also potentially on how successful the team is in winning games. 2020 Goff: 67.0% compl, 263.5 yards per game, 7.2 yards per attempt, 20 TDs, 13 INTs, 90 rating, 58.4 QBR, 6.27 ANY/A. They need to figure out how to throw deep more frequently and/or connect at a higher rate of success. With his weapons, he probably doesn't have to connect every time. Each hitch is generally tied to the next read. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders 3. In this installment of the Next Woman Up series, Raiders SVP, Chief Sales Officer Qiava Martinez discusses how she strives to be an effective leader, the responsibility she feels to help support other women and why all business should be personal. Those completion percentages aren't too much higher than Goff's success rate in 2020, but the key difference is that Mahomes had 66 attempts, going deep far more often. Watson was only accurate on 7 out of 24 passes on attempts of at least 25 yards, a rate of 29%, which is bad. The offensive line gives Goff a pristine pocket and he loads up and unleashes a rainmaker. Kaepernick proved to be an outstanding deep-ball passer during his rookie season, connecting on 25-of-49 throws 20-plus yards down field. He throws into windows with timing very well. Consider this: Watson is one of four quarterbacks to post a CPOE of +6 percent or better on deep passes in each of the last two seasons, and he did so in 2020 without the All-Pro, Hopkins, as part of a team that was forced to try to throw its way to victory for much of the season. You won't want to miss a moment of the 2022 season! His accuracy rate on passes over 20 yards fell from 43.2% to 34%. Kirk Cousins had the most INTs in the NFL through the first 6 games of 2020, with 10 INTs. on Jan 13, 2021, 4:22pm CST By | January 19, 2023 | 0 | January 19, 2023 | 0 He can take off and burn you with 4.40 speed and has all the tools you could dream of in a prospect. He flashed the potential to be a good NFL QB as a rookie, but he wasn't set up to succeed in every aspect. In a way, Diggs had valid reasons to be upset. Next Gen Stats' top 10 pass catchers of 2020: Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams rank high, but not No. On his way to an AFC championship victory, Burrow completed 186 of his 240 short pass attempts in 2021 for 1,858 yards and 12 touchdowns. Mediocre. Well, let's do some math and it will show how crucial the deep passing element can be for a team's passing statistics.
He can lock onto reads at times and skip over where he should be looking, but even when hes wrong, he has such great accuracy that it didnt matter. According to ESPN, at one point, Burrow was 2 for 25 on deep passes. Fittingly, Goff and Stafford were both tied for 19th in the Deep Ball Project rankings in 2019. Biggest remaining offseason priority for each AFC team: Can Broncos land Aaron Rodgers? The Vikings are slated to have five picks going into the NFL draft and they need to make the most out of them. Per SIS, Watson had a completion rate of 53.4% on deep passes this year. 2023 NFL Enterprises LLC. One reason Cousins put up good numbers this year was because Justin Jefferson was great and very explosive both before and after the catch. He had a 32% accuracy rate on deep bombs. In 2020, the Steelers went to a quick passing system and tried to get the ball out of Big Ben's hands quickly. Evaluating the Los Angeles Rams trade for WR Sammy Watkins: Was it worth it? As you'd expect, I was left with a strong group of qualified passers, but there are some notable omissions from the top 10. He led all of the big prospects with 70% of his passing yards coming before the Thompson-Robinson is a talented prospect who can make all the throws, but inconsistencies have him going in round three or later. Short passes might keep the chains moving, but it's the deep ball that dominates the highlight reel. While Watson's deep ball effectiveness experienced a dramatic improvement, Goff and the Rams have gone in the exact opposite direction in recent years. The 2nd round slot they gave up became JK Dobbins to the Ravens. Playing with Cooks, Brady's overall passing stats in 2017 were far better compared to 2019. WebInterpreted as: most passing accurate with a minimum of 14 passing attempts per team game by a player deep ball 2021. These were the QB stats in those contests: Goff: 4-1 record, 68.2% completions, 281.4 yards per game, 7.2 yards per attempt, 5 TDs, 4 INTs, Cousins: 1-4 record, 68.9% completions, 270.2 ypg, 7.6 ypa, 10 TDs, 3 INTs. If the Chiefs don't hit on the first one, just line up and try again. His 86.0 short passing grade ranked second, and he went 222-of-279 for 1,857 yards and a top-rated 121.6 passer rating at that depth in 2021. If those deep bombs happen so infrequently, why worry about it? Ben Roethlisberger in 2018 went deep frequently. If I caught that correctly it was 40-4-1 AFL + 66-16-1 NFL. Trevor Lawrence is the best quarterback prospect most people under 35 have ever seen. Several teams come into the 2021 NFL draft with a void to fill at quarterback and theyre in luck considering just how deep and talented this years class is at the position. Late in the first, Burrow fit a pass to Tee Higgins on a dig route between a plethora of Steelers defender for 16 yards. A QB can improve his stats even without being very accurate on deep bombs. That kind of decision making was a recurring theme for Fields. Potential multi-year . Allen's ability to make plays with his legs shined through these numbers as well, as he led the league in deep completions while on the run with eight. That was his only turnover-worthy play, which contributed to a lowly turnover-worthy play rate of 0.4% the best non-zero mark. His completion rate on passes over 20 yards dropped from 47.3% to 38%. Overcoming the 'worst thing' for young QBs: coordinator turnover, Diagnosing drama around Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson; Najee Harris can refuel Steelers' Super power. Read More: Trevor Lawrence Breakdown: The Prince That Was Promised. Ryan Tannehill posted a 100.9 passer rating, a 5:2 TD-to-INT ratio and a CPOE of +4.2 percent on deep throws, but gained just 514 yards (last among qualifiers) via those attempts. He didnt throw a ton of deep balls, but did complete a strong 9-of-19 passes over 20 yards. In 2017, Brady had 66.3% completions for 4,577 yards, 286.1 ypg, a 102.8 QB rating and 70.6 QBR. Goff had the 4th best accuracy between 20 and 30 yards among QBs with at least 20 attempts. He's also one of just two quarterbacks (joining Matthew Stafford) with a CPOE of +3 or better in each of the last four seasons. Kinsley ranked Watson 3rd best in the Deep Ball Project (Minshew was ranked 7th.). Brady has the most deep attempts in the NFL this year, at a whopping 83 attempts. Random Ramsdom: How much cap space do the Rams need for the incoming draft class? Quarterbacks such as Rivers (44.7%), Derek Carr (42.9%), Kirk Cousins (44.1%) all had higher deep completion rates better than Mahomes. It is a safe assumption that Goff will have very poor deep passing numbers this year, whether measured by Kinsley or by a different metric. He was atrocious under pressure (his accuracy rate was less than half of Goff's rate and Goff is generally ranked as being bad under pressure.) Last week, we ranked the top quarterbacks in deep passing situations using a multitude of metrics, including accuracy percentage and accuracy-plus percentage. Time will tell if he can replicate that in 2021.
All right, enough with the explaining about why certain players didn't make the list. * Away/Neutral Games qualifier is on pace for at least 80 pass attempts. For several seasons, John Kinsley had grinded out many hours of film to produce a very detailed statistical analysis of NFL QB performance on deep ball passes. His production is back to the 2017 level when he had Cooks in New England. With that in mind, our analysts debate which prospect SHOULD come off the board first on April 27. 
He also posted the second-highest expected points added on deep passes at 60.2. Whoops! * All Games qualifier is on pace for at least 200 pass attempts. So, I wonder if Kinsley will be any more impressed by him this year. Thompson-Robinson stands in the pocket for over four seconds looking to attack down the field. Eric Edholm and Dan Parr look ahead to the 2023 NFL Draft, highlighting the top three needs for all 32 teams. Chad Reuter forecasts five potential trades that would make sense involving Round 1 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft. Are the Colts going to move up for a quarterback? Trevor Lawrence is being touted as a generational talent, Zach Wilson is throwing across his body at his Pro Day, and Mac Jones may have the eye of Kyle Shanahan, but if Justin Fields is the fourth quarterback taken, some team is going to get a steal. Interpreted as: most passing Even more concerning was the dropoff in the frequency that the Rams attempted deep passes. This accuracy rate was over 5% higher than the 2 year average for Patrick Mahomes from 2018 and 2019 (to be fair, Gardner Minshew actually had a slightly higher accuracy rate on deep bombs than Watson in 2019.) He took the full-time starting role entering the 2022 season. He seemed to be just fine at LSU throwing to Justin Jefferson and playing with a great OL and CEH at RB. The bad news is he missed way too often. If we made it 20 additional deep bombs (the approximate difference between Stafford and Mahomes) and took a slightly more conservative average of 30 yards per play, this would give Goff an 8.1 ypa number. The first one that leaps off the screen (and will likely attract an avalanche of angry tweets) is the absence of perhaps the league's top quarterback and most exciting deep passer: Patrick Mahomes. On a couple of the 2019 deep bomb TD passes, Diggs is 5 yards past the CB. How did Florida QB Anthony Richardson fare? In fact, the stats for Cooks playing with Watson are virtually identical to his numbers in 2018 playing with Goff. Jones went deep just 39 times but was very effective when doing so, and his year-to-year improvement is incredibly encouraging. 2021 NFL season: Which head coach has the best chance to win his first Super Bowl? In 2015, Kinsley evaluated QBs on all passes over 15 yards. Even with the return of Edelman (who gave the Rams fits in the SB as they were unable to cover him), Brady's stats progressively declined. Sign up for our weekly recaps, informed analysis, and film breakdowns. Even Lamar Jackson (who missed a deep pass by nearly 8 yards against the Titans and is generally regarded as a poor deep ball thrower) had a completion rate exactly equal to the 36.4% Mahomes rate. Similar deal with Justin Herbert, who connected at a 37.7% rate. It takes a perfect throw with the safety inside and the corner bracketing outside. Restoring the deep ball element to the Rams offense is essential. 2022 NFL Player Statistics - Weeks 1 to 18 What are advanced QB stats? QB. A key part of determining expected completion percentage is the separation of a receiver from the nearest defender at the time a pass arrives. He missed the first half of his rookie season due to injury. I wonder what Brady's deep passing stats will look like for this season. When passing the ball, Thompson-Robinson is best within rhythm. Thompson-Robinson not only hits it easily, but he leads the receiver for more yards after the catch. https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/lists/vikings-2023-nfl-draft-scouting-report-dorian-thompson-robinson/, https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2023/04/DTR-Savvy-Runner.mp4, https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2023/04/DTR-Read-Option-Vision.mp4, https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2023/04/DTR-Off-Platform-Touch.mp4, https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2023/04/DTR-Looks-Off-Safety.mp4, https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2023/04/DTR-Progressions.mp4, https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2023/04/DTR-Progressions-2.mp4, https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2023/04/DTR-Dagger-Timing-Route.mp4, https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2023/04/DTR-Rushed-Feet-Leaning-Backwards.mp4, https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2023/04/DTR-Rushed-Throw-Hurried-Snap.mp4, https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2023/04/DTR-Good-Read-Bad-Throw.mp4, https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2023/04/DTR-Doesnt-See-Linebacker.mp4, NFL Draft: Tracking the Minnesota Vikings' top-30 visits, Vikings to host athletic linebacker on a top-30 visit, How does Hendon Hooker translate to the NFL? May 18, 2020 6:26 pm ET. Yet, it makes a big difference in how we view the QB and also potentially on how successful the team is in winning games. 2020 Goff: 67.0% compl, 263.5 yards per game, 7.2 yards per attempt, 20 TDs, 13 INTs, 90 rating, 58.4 QBR, 6.27 ANY/A. They need to figure out how to throw deep more frequently and/or connect at a higher rate of success. With his weapons, he probably doesn't have to connect every time. Each hitch is generally tied to the next read. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders 3. In this installment of the Next Woman Up series, Raiders SVP, Chief Sales Officer Qiava Martinez discusses how she strives to be an effective leader, the responsibility she feels to help support other women and why all business should be personal. Those completion percentages aren't too much higher than Goff's success rate in 2020, but the key difference is that Mahomes had 66 attempts, going deep far more often. Watson was only accurate on 7 out of 24 passes on attempts of at least 25 yards, a rate of 29%, which is bad. The offensive line gives Goff a pristine pocket and he loads up and unleashes a rainmaker. Kaepernick proved to be an outstanding deep-ball passer during his rookie season, connecting on 25-of-49 throws 20-plus yards down field. He throws into windows with timing very well. Consider this: Watson is one of four quarterbacks to post a CPOE of +6 percent or better on deep passes in each of the last two seasons, and he did so in 2020 without the All-Pro, Hopkins, as part of a team that was forced to try to throw its way to victory for much of the season. You won't want to miss a moment of the 2022 season! His accuracy rate on passes over 20 yards fell from 43.2% to 34%. Kirk Cousins had the most INTs in the NFL through the first 6 games of 2020, with 10 INTs. on Jan 13, 2021, 4:22pm CST By | January 19, 2023 | 0 | January 19, 2023 | 0 He can take off and burn you with 4.40 speed and has all the tools you could dream of in a prospect. He flashed the potential to be a good NFL QB as a rookie, but he wasn't set up to succeed in every aspect. In a way, Diggs had valid reasons to be upset. Next Gen Stats' top 10 pass catchers of 2020: Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams rank high, but not No. On his way to an AFC championship victory, Burrow completed 186 of his 240 short pass attempts in 2021 for 1,858 yards and 12 touchdowns. Mediocre. Well, let's do some math and it will show how crucial the deep passing element can be for a team's passing statistics.